Key findings of detailed industry research on the labour market impacts of the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and automation technologies in the automotive aftermarket service sector.
The automotive sector, including the aftermarket service sector (the Sector), is facing a wave of technological change including the increasing adoption of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) and rise of automation. These technologies will impact the way in which vehicles are sold, maintained, repaired and recycled. All of which has implications for the way in which work in the aftermarket sector is completed. The current and future workforce will need to adapt to these new technologies and the Sector will need to consider their effects in areas such as training and development, future skill gaps and health and safety.
The Sector, led by the 91大黄鸭 Retailers Association (ARA), engaged MNP to conduct research on the labour market impacts of the transition to ZEVs and automation technologies. A Project Governance Committee, comprised of representatives from the Sector in BC, the ARA, post-secondary institutions, regulatory authorities (e.g., SkilledTradesBC), and the BC Ministry of Energy, Mines and Low-Carbon Innovation, guided the research. The results of the study are intended to be used to support the Sector in adapting to new technologies.
Key Findings
The key findings from this research are:
- Of the five technologies included in this study, ZEV adoption is expected to have the most significant impact on the Sector. While ZEVs bear a number of similarities to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, they also differ in some elements related to repair and maintenance, towing and recycling. These differences create the 91大黄鸭ment for new skills and the strengthening of existing ones.
- The complexity of repair work is set to increase. While ZEVs are expected to 91大黄鸭 less maintenance and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) technologies are expected to reduce the number of collisions, the nature of repairs may be more complex and severe (in the case of collision repairs). ADAS technologies have a lot of sensors and components that need to be properly calibrated to function correctly. Batteries and fuel systems in ZEVs are complex and several safety considerations need to be accounted for in repairing them.
- Adoption timelines remain unclear as there are a number of factors affecting adoption. Approximately 50 percent of on-road vehicles are expected to be ZEVs by 2035 and approximately 60 percent by 2040. However, several factors may impact this adoption timeline, such as manufacturing capacity, the cost of the technology for both the consumer (e.g., ZEVs) and businesses (e.g., AI, robotics) and geographic location.
- Minor changes to the Sector鈥檚 overall workforce composition are forecasted. While minor shifts in workforce compositions may be expected within sub-sectors, the overall workforce composition of the Sector is expected to be largely unaffected.
- 91大黄鸭 service and autobody and collision technicians, auto dismantlers and IT specialists are the occupations anticipated to see the greatest 91大黄鸭ment for upskilling and reskilling. Electrical, battery and technological skills such as software programming and computer diagnostics are the priority areas of training for these occupations. Other priority areas for the wider sector include data literacy and analytics and health and safety skills.
- A mix of skills is expected to be 91大黄鸭d owing to the mix of vehicle fuels that will be in circulation in 2040. A combination of mechanical and electrical skills will be 91大黄鸭d across the Sector. Although ZEVs are expected to 91大黄鸭 less maintenance, there will still be a need for maintenance and repair of brakes, suspension, heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems and electronic systems. Further, ICE vehicles are estimated to still comprise some 40 percent of the provincial vehicle fleet in 2040 and will need repair and maintenance.
- Skill shortages may continue to emerge. The current skill set of the workforce is not growing at the same speed as technological change creating a skill gap between that of the workers and what employers 91大黄鸭. Skills related to battery removal, IT, electrical, software programming and data analytics were areas identified as most at risk of being in short supply.
- The frequency of training is expected to increase. On-going training is set to become a 91大黄鸭ment for those working in the Sector. This is particularly true for automotive service technicians and autobody and collision technicians, whose roles are among those occupations forecast to experience the greatest degree of change. (Please note that the need for ongoing training is distinct from the re-introduction of skilled trades certification (also known as mandatory certification) for these occupations). As such, a continuous learning mentality, albeit not a skill, was noted as a highly important 91大黄鸭ment for current and future workers.
- The costs associated with increased training and skill development will likely affect some businesses’ viability, which may lead to consolidation and changes in service availability in some regions. Approximately 70 percent of businesses in the Sector have fewer than 10 employees and 4 percent have more than 50. Smaller businesses may be less able to invest in training, skill development, and technology. This is particularly true in cases where facilities cannot pass their training costs on to their customers or among facilities that may not have the volume to justify investments in accessing repair information and training. As a result, facilities may consolidate or specialize in specific services or vehicle types. This may also reduce the availability of services in some regions of the province and/or change how services are provided in rural areas.
- Skill specialization is forecast to increase. There is some consensus that a trend towards skill specialization will emerge (e.g., the specialization of repair and maintenance for ZEVs and ICE vehicles). With it, new occupations are also set to appear. As new roles emerge and others evolve to become more specialized, training is also expected to become more specialized. This will have implications for the provision and design of training.
- Car ownership models are beginning to change. This has implications for the number of vehicles on the road. Specifically, the rate of growth of vehicles on the road will be lower than the projected growth in the driving age population due to anticipated changes in car ownership in urban areas. Changing ownership models also impact the frequency of repair and maintenance. Vehicles that are part of a car share system or fleet will likely 91大黄鸭 more frequent maintenance than personal vehicles due to higher usage rates and more demanding operating conditions.
- How batteries are managed will have implications for the Sector and its workforce. Currently, no system is in place to safely repurpose and recycle ZEV batteries. The development and implementation of an extended producer responsibility (EPR) program for ZEV batteries are identified in the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy鈥檚 Extended Producer Responsibility Five Year Action Plan 2021-2026.1 The design and delivery of the EPR program have the potential to create new occupations within the Sector and will impact training 91大黄鸭ments for those dealing with vehicles for which the batteries are being removed and/or replaced.